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Poland’s economy is one of the fastest growing in Europe. The country’s GDP grew by 6.7% in 2007 and 4.8% in 2008. These favourable results were the effect of the large increases in internal demand and investments.
According to the latest European Commission’s forecast, in 2009 the GDP growth may dip to 2.0 per cent. Taking into account, however, international crisis and -1.8 per cent GDP growth forecast for the EU-25, Poland’s result is a symptom of Polish strong economy.According to Central Statistical Office’s data, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2008 was in real terms 4.8 per cent higher than in 2007 (constant prices of the previous year). In 2007 GDP recorded 6.7 per cent growth. The rate of the value added growth for whole economy in 2008 was 4.9 per cent (6.6% in 2007). In 2008 total industry value added growth was 3.7 per cent, which was significantly lower than 9.9 per cent in 2007. Construction industry remained to be the fastest growing sector of Polish economy, recording 11.3 per cent increase in industry value added, little below 2007 level of 12.5 per cent. Market services sector rose well at the pace of 5.6 per cent (6,4 per cent in 2007).
Foreign trade
Exports
In 2008 the value of Polish exports amounted to EUR 114 566.8 million. The vast majority, i.e. 77.5 per cent of Polish goods was sold to the EU countries. Out of total EUR 139 328.5 million of imports, 61.4 per cent came from the EU states. The result was trade deficit of EUR 24761,7 million (9,8 per cent of the total turnover).
Polish exports tendencies in 2007 and 2008
|
Market |
2007 |
2008 |
|
EUR million |
Share |
EUR million |
Share |
|
Total |
101,142.5 |
100% |
114,566.8 |
100% |
|
Developed countries |
84,903.8 |
84% |
94,780.4 |
82,7% |
|
EU countries |
79,611.8 |
79% |
88,753.7 |
77,5% |
|
Developing countries |
6,189.6 |
6% |
7,780.3 |
6,8% |
|
CEE states |
10,049.1 |
10% |
12,006.1 |
10,5% |
Source: Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS)
Structure of Polish exports
|
Country |
EUR mn |
Share
(%) |
|
Germany |
28,609.7 |
25 |
|
France |
7,072.6 |
6.2 |
|
Italy |
6,884.7 |
6 |
|
The UK |
6,558.3 |
5.7 |
|
The Czech Rep. |
6,479.6 |
5.7 |
|
Russia |
6,060.7 |
5.3 |
|
Ukraine |
4,559.2 |
4.0 |
|
The Netherlands |
4,349.8 |
3.8 |
|
Sweden |
3,643.2 |
3.2 |
|
Hungary |
3,183.0 |
2.8 |
Source: Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS)
Imports
As is the case of exports, Poland’s main import partner is Germany. Trade exchange with the country accounted for 23.3 per cent of Polish imports in the first nine months of 2008. Among other leading import partners there is Russia (10%), China, Italy and France.
Polish imports tendencies in 2007 and 2008
|
Market |
2007 |
2008 |
|
EUR million |
Share |
EUR million |
Share |
|
Total |
118,770.8 |
100% |
139,328.5 |
100% |
|
Developed countries |
84,064.8 |
71% |
96,013.3 |
68.9% |
|
EU countries |
75,809.8 |
64% |
85,656.2 |
61.4% |
|
Developing countries |
21,949.1 |
18% |
26,773.1 |
19.2% |
|
CEE states |
12,756.9 |
11% |
16,542.1 |
11.9% |
Source: Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS)
Sources of Polish imports in 2008
|
Country |
EUR mn |
Share
(%) |
|
Germany |
31,834.2 |
22.8 |
|
Russia |
13,870.7 |
9.9 |
|
China |
11,254.4 |
8.1 |
|
Italy |
8,931.2 |
6.4 |
|
France |
6,590.6 |
4.7 |
|
The Czech Rep |
4,955.8 |
3.6 |
|
The Netherlands |
4,661.1 |
3.3 |
|
The UK |
3,907.5 |
2.8 |
|
Belgium |
3,450.0 |
2.5 |
|
Korea |
3,331.8 |
2.4 |
Source: Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS)
Inflation
In 2008 inflation started to grow. It was mainly the result of high fuel and foodstuff prices at world markets. Also fast growing wages and increasing domestic demand boosted inflationary pressure. Only in last two months of 2008, resulting from worldwide economic slowdown, prices started to grow more moderately. Annual inflation rate in 2008 was 4.2%, whereas in December it was just 3.3%.
Unemployment
Unemployment rates have considerably fallen in recent years. The long-term trend resulted mainly from stable, rapid GDP growth, which generated high demand for labour. Even so, the economic slowdown has recently affected the labour market and unemployment started to develop. At the end of 2008 it was 9.5%, reaching 10.9% by the end of February. The average salary in February 2009 was PLN 3,195, slightly down form record PLN 3,420 in December 2008.
Budget
According to the Ministry of Finance, in the first 3 quarters of 2008 budget deficit was almost PLN 11.5 billion, (estimated deficit for the whole 2008 accounted for PLN 27 billion). State’s planned revenue has been so far realised in 90.2% and the completion of national spending has reached 93.9%. Indirect tax was the most important source of income in the first half of 2008, accounting for PLN 130.4 billion, i.e. 61% of the total realised income.
Polish GDPO grow forecasts for the years 2007-2012
|
Year |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
|
GDP growth (%) |
6,6 |
5,4 |
4,3 |
4,2 |
4,5 |
4,3 |
|
Inflation (%) |
2,5 |
4,2 |
3,5 |
2,8 |
2,5 |
2,4 |
Source: The Economist |
