Good forecasts for Poland

27.01.2010

According to JP Morgan, economic growth in Poland will this year equal 3.5% and should continue to be the highest in the region. Poland’s public deficit should be lower than it is expected by the government.

As reported by today's Puls Biznesu, U.S. bank JP Morgan foresees that GDP growth in Poland will amount to 3.5% - the highest among the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. It is twice as high as Poland’s GDP in 2009 and a full percentage point more than the bank forecast a year ago. Nora Szentivanyi, economist at JP Morgan believes that the high economic growth rate results from increased domestic demand and exports. According to the Bank, economic growth should also be observed in the Czech Republic (2.5%), Romania (2%) and Hungary (1%). For other countries in the region forecasts are not as optimistic: Bulgaria -1.5%, Estonia -2.3% , Lithuania -3% and Latvia -3.5%.

The Bank estimates that the general government deficit amounted to 5.5% of GDP i.e. less than is was forecast by the government (7%). Nora Szentivanyi believes that the country’s public debt will be maintained at 55% of GDP.

The growth is expected to be closely connected with the acceleration of the privatisation process and revenues from the National Bank of Poland. JP Morgan predicts that in 2011 Polish GDP growth will be 4.2% and may reach 4.5% in the following years. Next year, higher than the Polish economic growth may be recorded in Romania (5%), Bulgaria (4.5%) and Hungary (4%). The Bank does not foresee any of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe to record negative economic growth rates in 2011. Lithuania should achieve 3.5%, Estonia3%, Latvia 2.5% and the Czech Republic 2.8%. (Puls Biznesu)